全身炎症反应指数在阻塞性睡眠呼吸暂停合并冠心病风险预测中的临床应用

Clinical application of the systemic inflammatory response index in risk prediction of obstructive sleep apnea combined with coronary heart disease

  • 摘要: 目的 探讨阻塞性睡眠呼吸暂停(OSA)患者合并冠状动脉粥样硬化性心脏病(冠心病)的危险因素,建立基于全身炎症反应指数(SIRI)的临床风险预测模型并验证其有效性。方法 收集2020年4月至2023年12月在新疆医科大学第一附属医院收治的疑似冠心病且完善冠状动脉造影或冠状动脉CT血管显像检查的OSA患者,根据患者是否符合冠心病诊断标准分为冠心病组和非冠心病组。通过LASSO回归、多因素Logistic回归筛选变量,并绘制列线图。用受试者操作特征(ROC)曲线、校准曲线、Hosmer-Lemeshow检验评价和验证预测模型的区分度和校准度,用决策曲线分析(DCA)评估预测模型的临床有效性。结果 多因素Logistic回归结果显示,年龄≥50岁(OR = 1.947,95%CI 1.277~2.969)、高血压(OR = 2.462,95%CI 1.612~3.761)、糖尿病(OR = 2.003,95%CI 1.313~3.057)、低密度脂蛋白胆固醇(LDL-C)≥ 2.6 mmol/L(OR = 1.793,95%CI 1.176~2.735)、呼吸暂停低通气指数(AHI)≥ 30次/小时(OR = 2.425,95%CI 1.500~3.920)、SIRI≥ 0.84(OR = 2.240,95%CI 1.463~3.428)为OSA患者合并冠心病的危险因素(均P < 0.05),据此构建预测模型列线图。预测模型训练集的ROC曲线下面积(AUC)为0.721(95%CI 0.673~0.770);验证集为0.750(95%CI 0.678~0.820)。校准曲线和Hosmer-Lemeshow检验显示该模型预测结果与实际结果的一致性较好(训练集χ 2 =7.924,P = 0.542;验证集χ 2 = 12.304,P = 0.197)。DCA显示预测模型在临床上是有益的。结论 结合年龄、高血压病史、糖尿病病史、LDL-C、AHI及SIRI等因素建立风险预测模型,对预测OSA患者并发冠心病具有一定的临床应用价值。

     

    Abstract: Objective To explore the risk factors for coronary artery disease (CAD) in patients with obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) and to establish a clinical risk prediction model based on the systemic inflammatory response index (SIRI) and to validat its effectiveness. Methods OSA patients suspected of CAD who underwent coronary angiography or coronary CT angiography at the First Affiliated Hospital of Xinjiang Medical University between April 2020 and December 2023 were enrolled. Patients were divided into CAD and non-CAD groups based on the degree of coronary artery stenosis. Variable were screened using LASSO regression and multifactor logistic regression, and a nomogram was constructed. The discrimination and calibration of the prediction model were evaluated and validated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, calibration curves, and Hosmer-Lemeshow test. The clinical effectiveness of the prediction model was assessed using decision curve analysis (DCA). Results Multivariate logistic regression results indicated the following factors for CAD in OSA patients (all P < 0.05): age≥50 years(OR=1.947 (95% CI 1.277-2.969)), hypertension (OR=2.462 (95% CI 1.612-3.761)), diabetes (OR=2.003 (95% CI 1.313-3.057)), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) ≥2.6 mmol/L (OR=1.793 (95% CI 1.176-2.735)), apnea-hypopnea index (AHI) ≥30 times/hour (OR=2.425 (95% CI 1.500-3.920)), and SIRI ≥0.84 (OR=2.240 (95% CI 1.463-3.428)). A nomogram was constructed based on these factors. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) for the prediction model was 0.721 (95% CI 0.673-0.770) in the training set and 0.750 (95% CI 0.678-0.820) in the validation set. Calibration curves and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test indicated good agreement between predicted and actual outcomes (training set: χ 2 = 7.924, P = 0.542; validation set: χ 2 = 12.304, P = 0.197). DCA demonstrated the clinical utility of the prediction model. Conclusion A risk prediction model incorporating age, hypertension, diabetes, LDL-C, AHI, and SIRI has potential clinical value for predicting CAD in OSA patients.

     

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