ICU铜绿假单胞菌血流感染患者死亡风险的列线图模型

Nomogram model for the mortality risk of ICU patients with Pseudomonas aeruginosa bloodstream infections

  • 摘要: 目的 探讨重症监护病房(ICU)铜绿假单胞菌血流感染患者的死亡风险因素,并构建其列线图预测模型,为临床决策提供帮助。方法 收集2014年1月至2023年12月中山大学附属第一医院ICU收治的74例铜绿假单胞菌血流感染患者临床资料,根据患者预后分为生存组(52例)和死亡组(22例),通过单因素及多因素Cox回归分析筛选预后的独立影响因素,构建列线图预测模型,并对预测模型的预测效能和准确度进行验证。结果 急性生理学与慢性健康状况评分Ⅱ(APACHEⅡ)>20分和多器官功能障碍综合征(MODS)是ICU铜绿假单胞菌血流感染患者独立的死亡风险因素(P < 0.05)。基于这2个独立的死亡风险因素构建列线图预测模型,该模型一致性指数(C-index)为0.759,对患者7 d和14 d的生存概率预测效能为0.776和0.844,校准曲线和临床决策曲线显示该模型具有良好的预测效能。结论 针对ICU铜绿假单胞菌血流感染患者死亡风险因素而构建具有时间动态预测功能的列线图预测模型,能够有效预测这类患者的死亡风险,该模型可辅助临床医师快速识别高危患者,优化抗生素使用策略。

     

    Abstract: Objective To investigate the risk factors for the mortality of Intensive Care Unit (ICU) patients with Pseudomonas aeruginosa bloodstream infections, and to construct a predictive nomogram model to assist clinical decision-making. Methods Clinical data from 74 patients with Pseudomonas aeruginosa bloodstream infections in ICU of the First Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University were gathered from January 2014 to December 2023. The patients were classified into the survival group(n = 52) and mortality group (n = 22) based on the prognosis. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were used to screen for independent prognostic factors, and a predictive nomogram model was constructed. The predictive performance and accuracy of the model were verified. Results Acute physiology and chronic health status scoreⅡ (APACHEⅡ) >20 and multiple organ dysfunction syndrome (MODS) were the independent risk factors for the mortality of ICU patients with Pseudomonas aeruginosa bloodstream infections (both P < 0.05). The nomogram model was constructed based on these two independent risk factors, with a concordance index (C-index) of 0.759. The predictive efficiencies for survival probabilities at 7 days and 14 days were 0.776 and 0.844. Calibration curve and clinical decision curve showed that the model had good predictive efficiency. Conclusions A time-dynamic predictive nomogram model is constructed for the risk factors of the mortality of ICU patients with Pseudomonas aeruginosa bloodstream infections, which could effectively predict the risk of mortality of such patients. This model can assist clinicians to rapidly identify high-risk patients and optimize antibiotic use strategies.

     

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