基于列线图的肥胖2型糖尿病患者糖尿病肾病风险评估模型构建与验证

Development and validation of a nomogram-based assessment model for the risk of diabetic nephropathy in obese type 2 diabetes mellitus patients

  • 摘要: 目的 探讨肥胖2型糖尿病(T2DM)患者发生糖尿病肾病(DN)的危险因素,构建、验证肥胖T2DM患者发生DN的列线图风险评估模型。方法 回顾性纳入2021年1月至2023年12月在中山大学附属第三医院内分泌与代谢病学科就诊的370例肥胖T2DM患者。根据患者尿白蛋白/肌酐比值(ACR)将患者分为DN组(n = 79)及非DN组(n = 291),随机分为训练集(70%)和验证集(30%)。收集患者的实验室检查结果及伴随疾病情况等数据资料。通过最小绝对收缩和选择算子(LASSO)回归进行变量降维筛选,通过多因素Logistic回归构建列线图模型。模型的区分效能、校准效能及临床应用价值分别通过受试者操作特征(ROC)曲线、霍斯默-莱梅肖(H-L)校准曲线和决策曲线分析(DCA)进行评价。结果 DN组与非DN组肥胖T2DM患者在年龄、病程、高血压、高脂血症、骨质疏松、脑梗死、冠心病、收缩压、腰围、丙氨酸氨基转移酶(ALT)、天冬氨酸氨基转移酶(AST)、血白蛋白、血尿素氮、血清肌酐、胱抑素C比较差异均有统计学意义(均P < 0.05)。LASSO 回归筛选出7个潜在评估变量,多因素Logistic回归最终确定糖尿病病程、高血压、血白蛋白和血清肌酐为肥胖T2DM患者并发DN的影响因素(P < 0.05),并以此构建列线图评估模型。该评估模型在训练集中评估DN风险的AUC为0.913(95%CI 0.871~0.955),在验证集中DN风险的AUC为0.919(95%CI 0.856~0.982),训练集和验证集中模型拟合优度检验结果均显示P > 0.05,提示模型拟合度较好。结论 糖尿病病程、高血压、血清肌酐、白蛋白可能是肥胖T2DM 患者并发DN的关键影响因素,基于上述4种影响因素构建的列线图评估模型,可有效评估肥胖T2DM患者发生DN的风险。

     

    Abstract: Objective To analyze the independent risk factors for diabetic nephropathy (DN) in obese patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), and to construct and validate a nomogram-based assessment model for the risk of DN in obese T2DM patients. Methods 370 obese T2DM patients treated at the Department of Endocrinology and Metabolic Diseases, the Third Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University between January 2021 and December 2023 were retrospectively enrolled. According to urinary albumin/creatinine ratio (ACR), all patients were categorized into the DN (n = 79) and non-DN (n = 291) cohorts, and then randomly allocated into the training (70%, n = 259) and validation (30%, n = 111) groups. Comprehensive clinical data including laboratory parameters and comorbidities were collected. Variable selection was optimized using LASSO regression, and a nomogram assessment model was constructed based on multivariate Logistic regression analysis. The discriminatory performance, calibration accuracy, and clinical applicability of the model were assessed utilizing the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, Hosmer-Lemeshow (H-L) test, and decision curve analysis (DCA), respectively. Results Significant intergroup differences were observed in age, duration of diabetes, hypertension, hyperlipidemia, osteoporosis, cerebral infarction, coronary artery disease, systolic blood pressure, waist circumference, alanine aminotransferase (ALT), aspartate aminotransferase (AST), albumin (ALB), blood urea nitrogen (BUN), creatinine (Cr), and cystatin C (CysC) (all P < 0.05). LASSO regression identified seven candidate factors, and multivariate Logistic regression confirmed that duration of diabetes (OR=1.174, 95% CI=1.098-1.265), hypertension (OR=10.332, 95% CI=3.941-31.499), ALB (OR=0.840, 95% CI=0.752-0.931), and Cr (OR=1.016, 95% CI=1.005-1.029) as significant influencing factors for DN (all P < 0.05). Based on these findings, a nomogram assessment model was constructed. The nomogram demonstrated excellent discrimination: the area under the ROC curve (AUC)=0.913 (95% CI=0.871-0.955) in the training cohort, and AUC=0.919 (95% CI=0.856-0.982) in the validation cohort. H-L goodness-of-fit tests indicated satisfactory calibration in both cohorts (training set: χ 2= 4.048, P = 0.853; validation set: χ 2=6.162, P = 0.629). Conclusion Duration of diabetes, hypertension, serum Cr, and ALB levels constitute significant influencing factors for DN development in obese T2DM patients. The validated nomogram incorporating these four parameters provides clinically applicable risk stratification for this population.

     

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